Structural Labor Dynamics Observatory Methodology

Structural Labor Dynamics Methodology

The Structural Labor Dynamics Observatory quantifies demographic accounting constraints on future aggregate output growth through 2050.

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Scope & Epistemic Boundaries

1. Included Model Mechanisms:

   • Single-year age cohort structure (ages 0 to 100+) from U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
   • BLS labor force participation bounds (ages 20 to 64).
   • Solow growth accounting decomposition: $g_{y,pt} = g_L + g_A$.
   • Finite production allocation identities (transfers vs worker retained).

2. Excluded From Model:

   • Short-term business cycle fluctuations, recessions, or inflation.
   • Monetary policy actions & central bank interest rate forecasts.
   • Legislative fiscal policy shifts or tax regime modifications.